Before I start pointing fingers at what is happening now in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, I would like to remind everyone there’s already an appalling example in the same region: Iraq. Regardless of the strong economic incentives to intervene in Iraq, the biggest legitimate excuse was to liberate the Iraqis free of Saddam’s tyranny. Now people are freed, Saddam was executed, what happened to Iraqis now? (ferocious laughter here) At least we could say the presence of US force merely sustains a paper-thin secular government. Nobody knows how messy it would become after the withdrawal of US troops here in the ancient land of Mesopotamia.
Shifting back to current waves of so-called “Arab Spring”. As far as I could see, it is not about democracy, freedom, or human rights. Instead, it is the sheer consequence of the uncontrolled inbreeding within every Arab clan. Simple, the babies keep popping out in an exponential level, whereas the local economy gets shittier and shittier day by day. Look at the massive percentage of people under 25 in those Arab countries (including Tunisia, albeit having the most rational birth rate), it is no surprise to see that it is just a matter of time when the shit hits the fan. Babies grow up to be agonizing unemployed rabbles, how would they not go on the street and demand changes? Meanwhile, Arabs are far from being enlightened to know what democracy means, and there goes the soft political absorption of public unrest. With average inbred IQ level, lazy economic status, low education level (but Koran education), bursting population, drastic social rioting is then the most likely to erupt at any time.
So when the massive excessive youngsters’ riot finally broke out in the Arab world, it only leaves two scenarios in the society: either the incumbent ruling class miraculously tame the angry youths (this is what Syria, Yemen, Algeria, Bahrain, Saudi, Jordan, and Morocco are trying), or the rabbles grow into a momentum that would rumble the current polity (this is what happens in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya). However, in either scenario the fundamental root of this social unrest would not be addressed and problems would eventually spread to Europe because of its proximity and economic attractiveness to those regions. Of course, the latter option would make the whole process much faster, like it or not. This is what we have witnessed as we speak in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya.
In the meantime, it is infuriating to see how the Western political elites are responding to such change in the region. It is really not difficult to figure out the causes and effects of this massive social upraising in the Arab world, yet decision-makers decided to appease the leftists’ touching lines and follow their guts and hearts in this one, once again. One thing leads to another. The next thing we know Western leaders back-stabbed their traditional dictator allies like Ben-Ali, Mubarak, and even Gaddafi who turned pro-west in the last decade of his regime. In Tunisia and Egypt there are strong local military presence; so Western leaders only turned their ugly faces to the rioters. In Libya, there isn’t even a common ground for a sense of nationhood; so NATO bombed every possible targets, armed and trained the rebels. Anyway, all these actions now seem to serve one mega sacred purpose: to shed the light of western liberalism in the Arab world.
It is indeed a very noble thought, except that reality does not revolve around some noble dreams. When the plans are completely detached to the reality, we call it nothing but a phony sham. The cornerstone that goes against Western egalitarianism in those places is their strong affiliation to Islam, which has its own detailed description of how everything should work out in a Muslim society (without the presence of an iron secular ruling elites). Evidence? Look at the so-called first legitimate democratic election in the Arab world: Tunisian Islamist party claims election victory, set to dominate writing of new constitution. It is widely recognized that Tunisia is the most modernized and secular-minded Arab state in the region, yet this happens. I have predicted such trend long before the election was held, just did not foresee it’d come so easily. Similar flows would be soon expected in Egypt and Libya, with much stronger momentum.
In the end, the demographic bombs are not defused at all. Islamism is on the rise. More excessive young Muslims would flock to Europe and colonize the ageing population there. For all we know, western ideologies are no longer appealing to the Arabs. The age when they rushed to wear suits and speak English has long gone with the wind. Population bomb + revitalization of Islamism, with the catalysis of western leftism, it’s a picture of one million raving fists swinging in the air. Let’s give it 50 years to happen.
Isn’t it beautiful? A true master piece of German cartographer Sebastian Münster in the Renaissance Era., one of the few contemporary Europe-focused map in Europe. This is the kind of art that I would dig very much.
The current tough tones and political drama Turkey has presented are sending a strong signal to the world: “Showtime for our Turks again”. As I have talked about it in a previous post, Turkey always has the desire to retrieve what belonged to them back in the glorious days of the Ottoman Empire. Now they seem more confident than ever.
Is it? Let’s check out what was going on in the past few days: We saw Turkey downplayed relation with Israel dramatically due to some radical leftist suicidal mission. Turkey hates Israel now? Nah, it just wants to whitewash its image in front of all its Muslim brothers in the Middle East, especially after the demise of effective pro-West secular authoritarian polity in the region. This is a nice first step. Those inbred Arabs (such as those mobs who stormed Israel Embassy in Cairo) are easy to fool anyway. So then Erdogan was greeted like a hero when he visited Egypt, Libya, and even Tunisia later. I have to say Turks definitely outsmart their Arab counterparts. Erdogan didn’t make the suicidal move to visit Gaza after all, a move even considered unbearable by its Western babysitters.
Usually it’s fine to appeal to those newly empowered groups in those countries, many Western countries are exactly doing the same, paying a visit and offering large sum of
bribery aid etc. It’s their leftist propaganda, at least that’s the show they have to play to appeal to their own leftists-hijacking society to win the votes, not that there will be any consolidating outcomes in those poor countries. Since when did Western interventionism create anything good for the locals anyway? Well, nobody really gives a rat about those sandy tribes anyway, and I don’t think Turkey all of sudden feels super compassionate to look after their Muslim brothers, either. But the difference between Turkey and the West in maneuvering in that region is that the West could only appeal to the people in power with money. As much as the chaos was initiated by facebook and “so-called liberal” youth, there is always a substantial resentment against the West among the populace in the middle east. This is ideological irreconcilability, there’s nothing the West can do to change their hostile attitude. Meanwhile, Turkey is much better off in this race. They could easily appear appealing to the inbred angry young men with the costume of Islam. Whenever there’s a social turmoil and rioting against the dictatorship in Muslim world, Islam is always the biggest winner in the end, the Iran Revolution, the Iraqi War, and recently what happened in Yemen and Egypt. Smart politician of course notices the pattern. Western liberals could only try their best to ineffectively discourage this happening, which is due to happen anyway. Turks are happy about this trend, for it makes much easier for them to appeal to the Arabs. Simply by decrying some tough lines again the Jews, Erdogan came to Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, treated like a hero, and then started to publicly pray together to the Allah, televised of course. This simple almost-cost-nothing step is way more powerful than any hardcore Western aids in 10 years. The local just dig Turkey more than the West. Then he brought his business crew, signing this contract, providing that project, to show the Arabs “hey I am not only on your side, but I could offer you money and prosperity, too!”. In comparison, I don’t think any western leaders dare to make such religious connections, not even to their Christian brothers in deep trouble in the middle east (the only bluffing sign they did was to visit some lame church in Beijing to the Chinese who are natural immune to religion anyway).
Easy victory for the Turks. Ostensibly they are gaining more allies and momentum in the middle east, together with a much louder croaking. Now the croak is directly towards their babysitter’s face, the West as well. When the heat of Turk’s heroic visit in the middle east still remains, Turkey posed a very hostile position against the EU and the Cyprus. The Turks threaten to snip all ties with EU if Cyprus became the EU rotating president next year. Almost instantaneously, Turkey vowed to send their navy to Northern Cyprus coast to escort the gas exploration signed by Turkey and its vassal state that no one else recognizes. Two aggressive croaking coincide with the decry against Israel and Erdogan’s show trip in Middle East and North Africa. Perfect timing! I bet they planned that way ahead of days. Indeed EU has so much to lose from losing Turkey but Turkey is not really that strong enough to withstand the isolation from the West either (at least Turks think they have larger bargaining power now). In the end of day, it’s just some pointless political croaking. Turkey is not really going to freeze its relations with EU, but probably would send couple of destroyers off the Northern Cyprus coast. But it is a clear sign that Turkey would continue escalate its voice with its boosting confidence in the region. It’s a discernible annoyance and potential alert to Europe.
Not just croaking on the regional politics, Turkey also becomes more blatantly involved in interfering European domestic politics, with its large number of Turk immigrants in Europe of course, especially the core engine of EU: Germany. It’s nothing new to hear what a big headache is to deal with the Turk problem for the Germans, but it is relatively fresh to hear Turkish politicians are also getting involved in this heated debate directly from Turkey. The recently established BIG (Bündnis für Innovation und Gerechtigkeit, meaning Alliance for Innovation and Justice) party in the German politics, with members and candidates being exclusively Turks and strong affiliation with the ruling islamic AKP party in Turkey, is disguising itself with the promotion of multiculturalism to stride in the German mainstream politics. Meanwhile, on a recent visit to Germany, Turkish President, a symbolic title with no actual political power, Abdullah Gul denounced Germany’s attempt to impose compulsory German class on Turks in Germany as a violation of human rights. What’s matter with that? There will be more Turks and less Germans in Germany. Turks now collide with the hardcore leftists, which are gaining momentum in German politics nowadays (the gay Green party for example). And most importantly, Turkey is seeking high profile presence in backing its Turk population in the heart of Europe. See how powerful this is?
Turkey is going to be a major challenger to the EU imperialism, for the Turks want to be the regional big brother again. Everything appears promising to the Turks but only one real threat to the Turk’s regional domination plan: the Americans.
They owe a lot to the Americans, without US Turkey wouldn’t be so smooth in invading Cyprus back in 1974, without US Turkey won’t have the F-16 to bomb the PKK in Iraq, without US Turkey wouldn’t get so much aid money to grow itself. Like Saudis, Turkey is still an America’s spoiled kid. As much as Turkey croaks around, no way the Turks would turn their back to the Uncle Sam, at least it’s not the time yet. But this subordination won’t last for long. US influence is receding worldwide and Turkey is gaining confidence region-wide. It’s a matter of time to see some obvious signals for the split between the estranged foster-father-son relation.
Look at the poster Turkish hackers put on some Palestinian websites (they mistook Palestinian websites for Israeli ones). They want to F Israel, they want to F Greece, they want to F Armenia, and they want to F PKK. But there’s no condemnation for the Americans, yet. There is just some implicit annoyance for the US in the poster. However, it wouldn’t take long for them to upgrade their slogans against the Nazis Germans and Sneaky Americans.
Turks hate their neighbors, but their neighbors hate them even more. Tell me one neighbor that doesn’t explicitly hate the Turks (not to forget the Kurds are in Turkey as well). For Turks, there’s still hope that Syria could embrace Turkey after the downfall of Al-Assad like what happened in Egypt. But even if it happens, the Turk-Arab marriage won’t last long. I don’t think Arabs like Turks genuinely. They just got a much bigger enemy: Israel and the Western shadow. Remember the Lawrence of Arabia, a Brit homosexual who ignited Arab nationalism against the Turks? There’s only pan-Arabism. The Arabs don’t want the Turks in just as much as how they disdain the Persians.
The bombing in Ankara yesterday should also remind them out of their daydream, that they are far from being the supreme regional leader. However, Turkey seems to be on the ascending trend. This is rather disturbing and alerting to Europe. Since the The Battle of Manzikert, Turks have never hesitated to exert its hostility against Europe whenever they can. They are never friends to Europe.
Personally I am fine with Turkics, a big fan of Tengriism by the way. But since I too have ideological irreconcilability with Islam, I don’t think I would be be happy to see a Islamic great confederation of Turkey in the near east in the future.
I recently attended an academic colloquia on international development issues. Someone presented an interesting study on the failure of EU development policy on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Here is some of the highlights in her research:
Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has become an independent country on the 22nd of May 1992. In the first few years of its independency BiH was at war with Serbia and Croatia until the end of 1995. The war ended when the ‘General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina’ was signed. This agreement is often referred to as the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) for it was signed in the United States nearby the city Dayton. Peace negotiations were initiated and coordinated by the foreign intervening countries that tried to stop the war. In the DPA the structure and organisation of the country was designed and the ad hoc international institution the ‘Office of the High Representative (OHR) has been authorized to monitor and enforce the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA).
In Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided between two Entities and a district. The two Entities are the Republica Srpska (RS) and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH). The district is located in the North-East corner of BiH and is called the Brčko district. In the DPA the governing competences were distributed to the Entities and the central State government. Both Entities were assigned the same competences. The competences of the State government concern justice, law enforcement, foreign affairs, finance, asylum, refugees, immigration, air traffic control, common communication facilities and inter-Entity transportation. The Entities are in possession of the remaining competences like agriculture, education, health services and others. Brčko has become a separate area for the warring parties could not agree on who would get Brčko district, therefore the area was not divided between the Entities but instead was placed under supervision of a Deputy High Representative of the international community. The district has its own local government and the Deputy High Representative oversees the implementation of Dayton in Brčko area. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) is again divided over ten cantons that have their own governments and constitutions.
Present day BiH is two de-facto separated regimes. Multi-culturalism has absolutely no chance to survive in a country where things are working according to the clannish rules. Bribery is a common and widely recognized practice in the BiH politics. Mistrust among different ethnic groups, even among different clans are so evident that the chance of cooperation on a common development goal is virtually equivalent to the chance of reaching absolute zero temperature there. Therefore, in order to revive local society and economic activities, one must devise a unique plan that could well fit into this peculiar condition of BiH society. A total separation that could split different ethnic groups in different territories independently could probably work the best for the local people there. Unfortunately EU failed to recognize this power-war complex emergency situation and holds the black-white wishful thinking – that is, when the war is over there is only development right away. EU’s liberalism ignores the complex reality in BiH and pose a “make-up fantasy” in its development policy towards BiH, that is focusing on the build-up of multi-culturalism and democratic diverse society in BiH. At the same time, EU bureaucrats refer to the corruption and patronage patterns in BiH as a mere reflection of barbarism and ignorantly impose the policy based on the template of the western society. EU’s presence in BiH therefore in some sense is doomed from the very beginning.
In the integration discourse of the EU the complex emergency is not examined nor dealt with. The EU does not look into the causes, functions and roots of the problems in the Bosnia and Herzegovina. Reasons for this neglect are found in the neoliberal assumption in the integration discourse of the EU and in the possible advantages of selectively overlooking information. It could be that the EU does not want to reveal the complex emergency for this information might affect the image of the EU and of Bosnia and Herzegovina. When information about the situation selectively chosen, these consequences might be prevented. Another reason concerns the neoliberal fundaments in the integration discourse of the EU. In the neoliberal thinking development can only occur through economic and political liberalization. In the neoliberal reasoning the situation in which one intervenes is perceived to be a blank slate, because the context does not affect the outcome of the neoliberal interventions. These assumptions lead to the make-over fantasy which is also found in the integration strategies of the EU. The make-over fantasy falsely assumes that external structures and models can be implemented in a different context without addressing complex emergency. Applying the make-over fantasy limits the success of intervention and provides an explanation why the results of the EU integration process are hampered.
This is the first guest article in my blog. Credit goes to “spandrell”, a white friend of mine. I got the honor to publish his original work in my blog to share with everyone. Enjoy!
There’s this question I’ve wondered about forever. We are all told humans are individuals who think independently and are totally creative and unique.
But I grew up and read, travelled, went to museums. And I thought: if all humans are individuals with individual souls and fully capable or whatever,
Why are cultures so uniform? And why do they vary so much? Why do Egyptians cut clitorises? Why do Chinese worship money? Why do Indians worship bullcrap? Why do Moroccans drink mint-tea? Etc.
The answer to cultural diversity between cultures, uniformity inside them; and to the world’s utter dysfunction in the postmodern age is,
Most people are stupid. As individuals, most people are pretty dumb. I won’t show the Bell curves here. But it’s pretty well known. Or it should.
Well dumb people can’t do anything by themselves. They have to be taught. Repeatedly. Drilled mercilessly on their brains until they reach basic competence.
And that’s what most cultures do: the same fucking thing over and over again for generations. Attach some mystical value to the whole thing (some God fucked a sheep and its son invented the technique), some ancestor worship (they came up with doing that on the first place), and over time you have a people who have become very proficient in, say, falcon hunting, horse-archery, cow worship, temple building, oil painting, whatever.
Of course this works at all levels: nation-level, tribe-level, caste-level, art school level. It’s the only way to really acquire proficiency at anything, to practice forever under people who have practiced forever. Indians took it too far and even force you to marry only other people who have practice the same thing forever. The average human can only do something with an acceptable level of proficiency if he does that and ONLY that for, well, ever. Over time come marginal changes, little evolutionary changes which cause what we call cultural change, i.e. that which we write on history books, or how we arrange museum expositions. Of course cultures have different degrees of change, some are quite fast (post Black-death Europe) some are pretty much static (Eskimos). Different variables influence that rate of change. I remember seeing in the Louvre museum those cylinder seals the ancient Middle-easterners used to decorate their clay tablets. They used those for over 3000 years! A damn cylinder carved as to print a relief in clay when you turn it forward. I’ m sure it was pretty neat when one Mesopotamian relief artist got fed up with carving every single clay tablet once by one, and invented the thing back in 3500BC. I bet all other artisans were blown away. But when Alexander’s armies 3000 years later went through the area the local artisans were still busy carving their cylinders. Now that’s what I call tradition.
My hunch is that IQ is the defining factor in the rate of cultural change. Some people just can’t really come up with new stuff. Say Papuans, who have been probably decorating their penis sheaths forever.
Meanwhile Europe was always busy destroying everything the previous generation had left over.
Yet again East Asians are pretty smart, yet aren’t as unfilial as Europeans. The thing is cultural change is not an unmitigated good: it destroys the proficiency-by-drilling thing, i.e. if you stop drilling you stop making good stuff. Japanese artisanship is a good example of what boring practice is capable of. Of course Europeans invented machines so there’s little need for practice-based artisanship, but that has caused widespread misery for those who need to be drilled to make anything useful, not to mention awkwardness for the older generations who can’t keep up with the new stuff.
Well that awkwardness is what Asians will NOT stand. Old people are in charge there, and young people accept the need to wait to be in charge. And when they are in charge they will make sure that the cycle is not broken and they get the respect they waited for so damn long. Cultural change in a sense is a form of disrespect over what was left over by forebears, and breaks the drill cycle (cultural transmission). I’m sure the old man wouldn’t be happy if its son decides to make fishing nets in a different way. Or stop making nets altogether. If you allow kids to stop making nets you may end up without the knowledge to make them and force the whole hamlet to starvation.
Breaking the drill cycle brings good and bad things. Good is it creates progress! You stop teaching something, people stop being able to do it. So you need to come up with something else. Better. Voila, steam machine. Voila, airplanes. Voila, penicilin. Voila, smartphones. It’s pretty cool and we all owe a lot to it.
The bad thing is that it causes the vast majority of the people (those unable to come up with things, those who NEED the drilling to be able to do anything) to become miserable inefficient workbots. The solution is more effective drilling (what we used to call ‘education’) to make them proficient at whatever productive industry there is at the moment. It worked while 1. The rate of change was pretty much generational, i.e. you could expect to use the skills learned in school when you become an adult; 2. Schools drilled kids with merciless efficiency and brutality. So kids actually learned 1. Manners 2. A trade.
But now? We have become so enamored with ‘progress’ (cultural change) that we came up with the fantastic idea that if you stop ALL drilling at all, and just teach instead some abstract nonsense about queer history and democratic values, people will come up with new things all the time! Ain’t that awesome? So there’s some stupid idea out there that the innovation rate is not enough (tell that to Mesopotamians which decorated their houses the same way for 3000 years), so we need to come up with even more new stuff, but people just can’t keep up. Why could that be? Real Answer: people just aren’t that smart. Mainstream answer: Kids get bored at school with drilling, so we need to stop drilling and they’ll become super creative!
This has been done since around the 70s, with the predictable results of a complete breakdown of traditional manners and culture, making dumb people (= left half of the Bell Curve) totally unproductive, ultimately becoming junkie welfare addicts. Smart people still somehow come up with enough things to keep the economy going, but demographics predicts it can’t last much longer. The 3rd worlders we are importing to replace our useless new underclass are even dumber than the natives, and we aren’t educating them either, so we are just creating a doubled up junkie welfare addict plebeian mass. And don’t get me started with Jihad.
So European obsession with change (‘progress’) made it deny the most basic human way of cultural transmission, that is: focused drilling. Asians are still pretty much for it (too much, as they drill also their smart kids, which become boring workbots), so they’ll probably keep some level of civilization while Europe strives to get its shit together. If it ever does.
I mean to start an article to question the rationales behind the establishment of South Sudan and its future, but tonight after seeing an exciting piece of news on the other part of Africa (the lighter version of Africa -> Libya), I decided to share my tremendous rapture with you all.
So, I guess this political farce could be put in an end, that is, victory for Gaddafi! and True Victory for France, Italy and Europe!
Liberal/leftist always like to simplify the situation in a place where it’s essentially different than their cognitive basis, the Western society. In the case of missilery intervention of Libya, Liberal/leftist exactly did the textbook example: that is, demonize one side, that is of course the aging dictator of Gaddafi (who is already willing to bow to the Europeans anyway), and victimize the other side, this of course the helpless rebels, depicted as the dedicated freedom defenders who fight against tyranny, and therefore the West should unconditionally help the rebels on “humanitarian” ethics to defend freedom. What a nice and sweet story that would pump up every young man’s blood, it’s like the hollywood movie in reality, rebels are the true heroes and victory should be theirs.
So France was very much eager to show its righteousness and mega freedom-defender, US was a bit reluctant , learned his mission and got in deep shit in Afghanistan and Iraq. France said, you don’t do it, I don’t mind taking over! Exactly! It’s about frickin time that France, La France, shows the world it still can! So France aided the rebels, pressing the buttons and send some missiles, and most of all, made a lot of noise on the media, denouncing this refusing that (decrying Gaddafi and publicly recognize rebels). So this made the Libya chaos into a staggering stalemate. Money spent everyday on god-knows-what, no significant effects that are expected by the liberal/leftist received, so real French logic people start to question…..
Then next thing you know, France tells Libya rebels to seek peace with Gaddafi. ”Screw you guys, I am going home!” So I guess France learned its lesson? that there is no simple good and evil? Gaddafi is cruel but at least he could effectively control the country of hundred tribes, but hey, still quite a lot tribesmen dig him. Rebels aren’t any better. They are merely some tribesmen who got pissed at getting little oil money from Gaddafi, Benghazi has always been hostile to Tripoli, they are just as cruel as Gaddafi (their attitude towards pro-Gaddafi crowd is no different to Gaddafi’s attitude towrads rebels), but sucks in military big time compared to Gaddafi. So in the end, the bubble of that good-vs-evil fairy tale got poked. France spending million-dollar missiles achieving nothing, I believe that they over the time got more rational after finding the true nature of Libyan conflict and the country of Libya (country? or a sum of hundred tribes that used to be effectively manipulated by Gaddifi), and counting their loss and gain, finally: screw it, we could make a better deal with Gaddafi than the rebels…
Seems Libyan conflict persists, but it’s going to an end. It’s actually much, much better off for an iron dictator like Gaddafi to be in power in Libya than a chaotic “democratic” government that rules over hundred tribes (not to mention the potential African immigrants surge once Libya turned anarchic …). It’s a victory for France, for Europe, for once politicians turn realistic and tear apart the mirage of liberal/leftist denialism.