geo-politics

Nationhood and their borders

In the beginning, people speak different and act different for they live in distance. For instance in Europe nobles wouldn’t really bother teaching the peasants the same language they speak; and peasants wouldn’t really mind if the government post something that they could not understand on the city wall. After some successful political marriage it was pretty common in Medieval Europe that different regions (some don’t even share geographical borders) with different local languages and people share the same lord. Think about the Habsburg Dynasty. They had half Europe at the time. They even used different court languages to govern their vast dominion. It was the political norm for the feudal system in Europe, way before the emergence of modern nationalism. People were much more relaxed at the definition of border and nationality (though religion was a pretty serious matter for the identity). The definition of modern nationhood, one nation one people on language, came with the drastic French Revolution at the end of 18th century. As increasingly centralized polity imposed deliberate assimilation policy upon different local groups (i.e. like the spread of French in France or Belgium), local groups would also be awakened to resist the alien influence. In most cases the big power won. That’s why you got Germans are Germans, French are French, Italians are Italian nowadays. Occasionally locals managed to resist the imposition. That’s how those small nationalism movement emerged, such as the Flemish, the Baltic countries, the Basque, etc. After this what I call dramatic shuffling, the modern international political structure came to the stasis. People would move even for the sake of switching to different ethnic regime in between some artificial boundaries (like the Turk/Greek swap deal, or the expulsion of the Germans in Eastern Europe). In those wild days, borders change all the time, people come and go, some becomes prominent, some disappears, few stays the same. Nationhood and the border were not as sacred and eternal as we take for granted nowadays.

Habsburg Empire, 1547AD

After years of struggle with the rise of modern nationalism, in today’s politics, most countries have one predominant majority of identity and language. A nation, defined by its geographical border is sacred and inviolable. This is the first thing that would cross over people’s mind when thinking of their country. What’s more, the few surviving local groups want to be out of their masters after the failed attempt of assimilation. Then big countries split into a number of small countries, like the case of Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, and even Georgia. As extreme as they appear, those peanuts size national movements are merely the extending tail of the whole modern nationalism movement starting 200 years ago.

But what’s the real trend now? As mentioned above, modern nationalism is coming to a dead end. Only small groups of laggards are still whining about the pie they didn’t taste, like Basque, Kosovo, or even Catalonia. The rest majority of people in the modern civilization are, on the contrary, a bit bored and tired of such modern tradition, especially after two biggest national wars. So people started to eye on the next step to find something to associate with… This is when things get out of control…

Pilot Project

Out of control how? Out of control when people start to think that all humans should be treated equally and multiculturalism in a post-nationalism era is beautiful. So nationhood becomes less and less important now and borders are the symbols of old rigid outdated system. Intellectuals plan to break down the old ethnocentrism and build up something way larger to stimulate another rapid development just like nationalism did to us back then, as larger scale in polity brings larger potential of scientific advancement (people stay more focused). The first thing that needs to be gone is the nationhood and then the borders. But so far only the integration of European Union makes sense to me as the potential 1+1>2 game to reinvigorate Europe. The rest of those movements? There are simple too much discrepancy among the groups of people involved. Clustering the nationhood and borders only makes sense when the groups involved are somewhat in common at culture, IQ, economy etc. The whole ethnocentrism still remains strong despite being at the downward spiral, and we need to take that into consideration. The concept of nationhood would remain, but the entity of an independent polity would be upgraded. But then again, if it could not even be enforced effectively in Europe, then we certainly should forget about unconditional multiculturalism and think of other options to sustain our modern civilization.

The great Islamic confederation of Turkey

The current tough tones and political drama Turkey has presented are sending a strong signal to the world: “Showtime for our Turks again”. As I have talked about it in a previous post, Turkey always has the desire to retrieve what belonged to them back in the glorious days of the Ottoman Empire. Now they seem more confident than ever.

Is it? Let’s check out what was going on in the past few days: We saw Turkey downplayed relation with Israel dramatically due to some radical leftist suicidal mission. Turkey hates Israel now? Nah, it just wants to whitewash its image in front of all its Muslim brothers in the Middle East, especially after the demise of effective pro-West secular authoritarian polity in the region. This is a nice first step. Those inbred Arabs (such as those mobs who stormed Israel Embassy in Cairo) are easy to fool anyway. So then Erdogan was greeted like a hero when he visited Egypt, Libya, and even Tunisia later. I have to say Turks definitely outsmart their Arab counterparts. Erdogan didn’t make the suicidal move to visit Gaza after all, a move even considered unbearable by its Western babysitters.

Usually it’s fine to appeal to those newly empowered groups in those countries, many Western countries are exactly doing the same, paying a visit and offering large sum of bribery aid etc. It’s their leftist propaganda, at least that’s the show they have to play to appeal to their own leftists-hijacking society to win the votes, not that there will be any consolidating outcomes in those poor countries. Since when did Western interventionism create anything good for the locals anyway? Well, nobody really gives a rat about those sandy tribes anyway, and I don’t think Turkey all of sudden feels super compassionate to look after their Muslim brothers, either. But the difference between Turkey and the West in maneuvering in that region is that the West could only appeal to the people in power with money. As much as the chaos was initiated by facebook and “so-called liberal” youth, there is always a substantial resentment against the West among the populace in the middle east. This is ideological irreconcilability, there’s nothing the West can do to change their hostile attitude. Meanwhile, Turkey is much better off in this race. They could easily appear appealing to the inbred angry young men with the costume of Islam. Whenever there’s a social turmoil and rioting against the dictatorship in Muslim world, Islam is always the biggest winner in the end, the Iran Revolution, the Iraqi War, and recently what happened in Yemen and Egypt. Smart politician of course notices the pattern. Western liberals could only try their best to ineffectively discourage this happening, which is due to happen anyway. Turks are happy about this trend, for it makes much easier for them to appeal to the Arabs. Simply by decrying some tough lines again the Jews, Erdogan came to Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, treated like a hero, and then started to publicly pray together to the Allah, televised of course. This simple almost-cost-nothing step is way more powerful than any hardcore Western aids in 10 years. The local just dig Turkey more than the West. Then he brought his business crew, signing this contract, providing that project, to show the Arabs “hey I am not only on your side, but I could offer you money and prosperity, too!”. In comparison, I don’t think any western leaders dare to make such religious connections, not even to their Christian brothers in deep trouble in the middle east (the only bluffing sign they did was to visit some lame church in Beijing to the Chinese who are natural immune to religion anyway).

Easy victory for the Turks. Ostensibly they are gaining more allies and momentum in the middle east, together with a much louder croaking. Now the croak is directly towards their babysitter’s face, the West as well. When the heat of Turk’s heroic visit in the middle east still remains, Turkey posed a very hostile position against the EU and the Cyprus. The Turks threaten to snip all ties with EU if Cyprus became the EU rotating president next year. Almost instantaneously, Turkey vowed to send their navy to Northern Cyprus coast to escort the gas exploration signed by Turkey and its vassal state that no one else recognizes. Two aggressive croaking coincide with the decry against Israel and Erdogan’s show trip in Middle East and North Africa. Perfect timing! I bet they planned that way ahead of days. Indeed EU has so much to lose from losing Turkey but Turkey is not really that strong enough to withstand the isolation from the West either (at least Turks think they have larger bargaining power now). In the end of day, it’s just some pointless political croaking. Turkey is not really going to freeze its relations with EU, but probably would send couple of destroyers off the Northern Cyprus coast. But it is a clear sign that Turkey would continue escalate its voice with its boosting confidence in the region. It’s a discernible annoyance and potential alert to Europe.

(BIG poster) We are Germany, but why not say we are all Germans?

Not just croaking on the regional politics, Turkey also becomes more blatantly involved in interfering European domestic politics, with its large number of Turk immigrants in Europe of course, especially the core engine of EU: Germany. It’s nothing new to hear what a big headache is to deal with the Turk problem for the Germans, but it is relatively fresh to hear Turkish politicians are also getting involved in this heated debate directly from Turkey. The recently established BIG (Bündnis für Innovation und Gerechtigkeit, meaning Alliance for Innovation and Justice) party in the German politics, with members and candidates being exclusively Turks and strong affiliation with the ruling islamic AKP party in Turkey, is disguising itself with the promotion of multiculturalism to stride in the German mainstream politics. Meanwhile, on a recent visit to Germany, Turkish President, a symbolic title with no actual political power, Abdullah Gul denounced Germany’s attempt to impose compulsory German class on Turks in Germany as a violation of human rights. What’s matter with that? There will be more Turks and less Germans in Germany. Turks now collide with the hardcore leftists, which are gaining momentum in German politics nowadays (the gay Green party for example). And most importantly, Turkey is seeking high profile presence in backing its Turk population in the heart of Europe. See how powerful this is?

Turkey is going to be a major challenger to the EU imperialism, for the Turks want to be the regional big brother again. Everything appears promising to the Turks but only one real threat to the Turk’s regional domination plan: the Americans.

They owe a lot to the Americans, without US Turkey wouldn’t be so smooth in invading Cyprus back in 1974, without US Turkey won’t have the F-16 to bomb the PKK in Iraq, without US Turkey wouldn’t get so much aid money to grow itself. Like Saudis, Turkey is still an America’s spoiled kid. As much as Turkey croaks around, no way the Turks would turn their back to the Uncle Sam, at least it’s not the time yet. But this subordination won’t last for long. US influence is receding worldwide and Turkey is gaining confidence region-wide. It’s a matter of time to see some obvious signals for the split between the estranged foster-father-son relation.

See from Turkish Hacker's Patriotism

Look at the poster Turkish hackers put on some Palestinian websites (they mistook Palestinian websites for Israeli ones). They want to F Israel, they want to F Greece, they want to F Armenia, and they want to F PKK. But there’s no condemnation for the Americans, yet. There is just some implicit annoyance for the US in the poster. However, it wouldn’t take long for them to upgrade their slogans against the Nazis Germans and Sneaky Americans.

Turks hate their neighbors, but their neighbors hate them even more. Tell me one neighbor that doesn’t explicitly hate the Turks (not to forget the Kurds are in Turkey as well). For Turks, there’s still hope that Syria could embrace Turkey after the downfall of Al-Assad like what happened in Egypt. But even if it happens, the Turk-Arab marriage won’t last long. I don’t think Arabs like Turks genuinely. They just got a much bigger enemy: Israel and the Western shadow. Remember the Lawrence of Arabia, a Brit homosexual who ignited Arab nationalism against the Turks? There’s only pan-Arabism. The Arabs don’t want the Turks in just as much as how they disdain the Persians.

The bombing in Ankara yesterday should also remind them out of their daydream, that they are far from being the supreme regional leader. However, Turkey seems to be on the ascending trend. This is rather disturbing and alerting to Europe. Since the The Battle of Manzikert, Turks have never hesitated to exert its hostility against Europe whenever they can. They are never friends to Europe.

Personally I am fine with Turkics,  a big fan of Tengriism by the way. But since I too have ideological irreconcilability with Islam, I don’t think I would be be happy to see a Islamic great confederation of Turkey in the near east in the future.

Ottoman’s ghost

In recent years, especially after the rise of their beloved PM Erdogan with his Pro-Islam AK Party in the Turkish politics, there has been an evident change in the long pro-West political momentum in Turkey. 100 years after Turkey’s founding father Mustafa Kemal Atatürk decided to abandon its moribund shell and embrace westernized and secular modernization, Ottoman’s ghost made a clear comeback. The next thing you know: Erdogan was deploring Chinese genocide against the Uighur in a riot that it’s exactly the other way around in Urumqi; Erdogan was denouncing Germany to stop those blunt assimilation attempt to infiltrate his Turkish brothers in Germany; Edrogan was pressing hard on Syria and publicly condemning al-Assad amid his protest repression; Edrogan claimed Turkey ought to be the role model for all Muslim states when massive chaos broke out in the middle east; Edrogan made a strong political decry against Israel and even plan to visit Gaza to support Hamas.

It takes a fool to figure out what Turkey is aiming for. I am sure all Turks are overwhelmed in their mighty glory of the great Ottoman Empire. They are tired of modern Turkey. If one keeps sticking his face to someone’s butt for a long time he would definitely get sick of it. It’s natural that Turks get frustrated with the West and retrieved their old Ottoman spirit. It’s just a matter of time. The Ottoman ghost has always been there. It just needs a good timing to release in rapt. The secularization process was never thorough enough to switch people’s mentality for modern civilization. Islam may be covered with Turkish nationalism in domestic politics, but it has been always the sole guidance for the majority of the clannish Turkish population. Germany made a miscalculation by importing the Turk labors 50 years ago. Look what kind of troubles they got themselves into? Let’s not forget not long ago, the definition of Turk, through the legendary Millet System in the Ottoman Empire, was merely the people who believe in Islam. With hundreds of years of tradition in mixing religious identity and ethnic identity, would it not be called naive to wish to whitewash the old religious image away in a short time of period? Even in countries full of radical communists in the past, religious tradition would revive right away after the downfall of communism.

Apostasy was never an option for Turkey. Still, its statesmen are trying hard to maneuver in between modernity and tradition for years. In the old time Turkey would always pretend to be an inveterate allay of the West, thanks to the political intervention from Turkish military juntas. Now that they got a powerful political party and a skillful politician, juntas are no longer in power. The strong affiliation with tradition emerged under the water after years of hiding. When the west are badly battered by their own social and economic problems, Middle eastern long-lasting dictating regimes start to rumble in front of massive social turmoil, the Russians are still deeply trapped in post-Soviet trauma, it’s showtime for the Ottoman Turks.

Is it? Everything seems so right, except that the modern Turkey is no longer the great Ottoman Empire. The benefit of a move to side with the Islamist is still too immature to outweigh the adverse risk of pissing off the West. Turkey is not strong enough to go blatantly against the West at the moment, as long as US still views Turkey as a pawn in Middle East front-line, and Kurds are still restlessly harassing the Turkish rule in Southeastern Anatolian mountains. On the other side, the Muslim world was never really a true friend of the Turks either. I don’t think either Persians or the Arabs would be happy to embrace the leadership of the Turks, the foreign steppe people from the east as far as they perceive. Persians are heretic Shi’a and Arabs would never be subject to a Turk dominion once again. Nowadays Arabs in the middle east needs an extra allay to counter-balance Western’s influence. It should not be difficult for Turks to figure out their Muslim brothers are just using them for the time being. Their alliance is expendable with an expiration date. The space for Turks to maneuver is actually still very limited at the moment. Any drastic move would only serve Turkey the opposite of what it is intended to exert. It’s better to keep the Ottoman’s ghost in the closet a big longer I say.

What would Suleiman The Magnificent do when he was still alive?

Those newcomers in the global community

It is really no exciting news to hear the birth of another new country. Do you know? There are simply 31 widely-recognized plus 5 controversially-recognized and 1 unrecognized new-born countries  that are no more than 21 years old (that is born no earlier than 1990, the legal age to do anything in most of US states), prior to 9th July, 2011 (Hong Kong, Macau being unique cases back to China, anything would be unique regarding China anyhow nowadays).  Assuming most of the readers live in relatively politically stable regimes and have little sense of how dynamic and volatile global political equilibrium could be, it must be a shock to see there are so many split break-up of old countries and formation of new countries in the past two decades. I say it’s purely amazing. Here is some collective information of those countries:

  • 23 widely recognized countries in Eurasia were created mainly due to historical ethnic dispute:

15 countries born out of the dissolution of the former Soviet Union in 1991; they are: ArmeniaAzerbaijan, Belarus, EstoniaGeorgiaKazakhstanKyrgyzstanLatvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, TajikistanTurkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.

6 countries born out of dissolution of the former Yugoslavia from 1991 to 2006; they are: Slovenia (1991), Croatia (1991), Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992), Serbia (1992 as Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, then 2006 as Serbia after split with Montenegro), Macedonia (1991), Montenegro (2006).

2 countries split out of the dissolution of the former Czechoslovakia in 1993; they are Czech Republic and Slovakia.

  • widely recognized  countries in Africa and Oceania emerged as a  consequence of historical colonial divisions:

6 countries obtained independence status that result from former colonial divisions; they are: Namibia (1990 from South Africa, as it used to a German colony rather than British), Eritrea (1993 from Ethiopia, as it used to Italian colony rather than part of Ethiopia, though the majority inhabitants  share same roots, culture and religion), Marshall Islands (1991 from US trusteeship, as it used to be German colony, controlled by Japan after WWI, and US after WWII), Palau (1994, from US trusteeship, as it used to be part of the Caroline Islands under first Spanish, then German, Japanese and later US rule), Micronesia (1990 from US trusteeship, as it used to be ruled by Spanish, German, Japanese, and US, chronologically), East Timor (2002 from Indonesia, as it used to Portuguese colony rather than Dutch East Indies).

  • widely recognized  countries in Eurasia founded as a result of ethnic unification:

Germany (1990) was founded based on the reunification of former West Germany and former East Germany after the fall of iron curtain. Yemen (1990), which is in deep political chaos at the moment, was established based on the unification of North Yemen and South Yemen, under the leadership the current unpopular president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

     

  • 5 controversially recognized political entities in Europe due to historical ethnic  dispute (in an ethno-geographic sense)

Kosovo (2008) declared independence unilaterally under heavy support of the US from Serbia, with its independence not widely recognized.

Transnistria (1990), declared independence after the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, the de facto independence from  Moldova reinforced after the Transnistria war in 1992, recognized only by Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia.

Nagorno-Karabakh (1992) proclaimed its independence in the middle of the Nagorno-Karabakh war (1988-1994) between Armenian and Azerbaijani, currently only recgnized by  Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia (both 2008), both announced their sovereignty soon after the collapse of Soviet Union, both soon engaged in warfare with Georgia shortly after (Abkhazia war and South Ossetia war) and controlled by Georgia after Georgia’s victory, and both gained de facto independence in 2008 with heavy military support from Russia. They are mutually recognized together with Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria. Besides, they are also recognized by Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Nauru.

  • 1 totally unrecognized political entity in the Horn of Africa

The sad and lonely political regime that is totally forsaken by the global community (the other being Western Sahara and that was under de facto Moroccan control)  lies in the upper part of the Horn of Africa, it’s called Somaliland, self-proclaimed independence from the god-forsaken land Somalia after the initial stage of Somali civil war in 1991 (As Somaliland used to be Italian colony rather than British Africa). Interestingly, unlike its former ruling regime Somalia, which turns into a hell place of constant wars and killings and the latest haven of infamous Somali pirates as the forgotten zone/no-go land of human civilization, Somaliland has enjoyed quite nice relative political and social stability, albeit no one really gives a damn.

AND NOW, ONE MORE NEW KID CAME IN TOWN ON 9th July, 2011, what’s the name of that country again? South Sudan?!

Good for the South Sudanese (I guess this is the term, though it is not really a ethnic term), after being long repressed by the Sudanese (North Sudanese?), their arabized north brothers (only a very small of them probably have one or two real Arab paternal ancestor in the past thousand years anyway),  it’s time to start a new chapter for the sons and daughters of the ancient Nubians (or just some random tribes from the South). Interestingly, albeit its ambivalent and questionable excuses behind its independence (the endemic momentum for independence is from neither long-going ethnic disputes nor colonial divisions, but rather religious conflicts which are comparable to Nigerian situation in my opinion), South Sudan surely seems to enjoy more international applause than any other new born countries since Montenegro. Most of other countries act like simply can’t wait to greet the new nation with overwhelming “smile and rapture”.

The Energy War

Energy is the essence of modern civilization. It is often associated with economic development, geo-politics, energy security, and until recently environment and climate change issues. I have always been very interested in energy issues, especially the energy politics. Let alone the debate of climate change, I used to believe renewable energy should be THE answer to all these energy problems and conflicts emerging around the globe, to which I even dedicated my Master thesis. But after working in the renewable energy sector for several months, I start to realize that the reality is far from the Utopia I pictured in the first place, that the role of fossil fuel in our energy portfolio is unlikely to be challenged in the short run. Having said that, I do hope this oil/gas pattern could change, that our economy could be absolutely decoupled from the consumption of fossil fuel. The sole reason why I would like that to happen is that I hope one day we could stop giving the oil money to the middle east to fund jihadists around the world. Meanwhile, it is important to realize that renewable energy could power up your house, but not your factories and the whole city (except for large hydro power). So there’s need for a replacement for a central energy source for fossil fuel in power plants, industrial process, and transportation, which in my perspectives lies in the future of ITER. However, the reason I am bringing the topic of energy is neither about nuclear debate nor renewable energy leap-forward campaign, but simply about the good old fashion oil issues.

Yesterday IEA, an organization that was set up exclusively to counter-balance the influence of oil producing countries in the 1970s, announced that it will release the oil reserves to the market to curb the increasing oil price - mostly due to the turmoil in Libya, from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). 60 million barrels from SPR will flow to the market as a defensive measure to maintain the oil price at lower level, after OPEC, an oil producing cartel refuse to increase its oil production in a recent meeting. IEA claims that a skyrocket high oil price would bring adverse effects on most fragile and crumbling oil-consuming economies that barely got recovered from the economic crisis 3 years ago. While OPEC certainly did not share the same vision, for the third time IEA started to use its own SPR to affect the market and show OPEC that suppliers are not the only one who got the power in this oil game. The last two times where IEA used its SPR, the most powerful arm of IEA that was ever designed for, were 1991 during the Gulf War and 2005 when Hurricane Katrina disrupted the Mexican gulf and blew away New Orleans. Coincidentally, both decisions were made under the Bush family. Once again, IEA initiated its SPR yesterday, but under rather odd circumstance compared to previous ones.

First of all, the oil price nowadays were around 100 USD per barrel, not even close to the price in early 2008 – almost 140USD per barrel, which did not really trigger the release of SPR reserve at that time. Major oil producing country Saudi Arabia even publicly claim to share the concern of western oil consuming countries that it might increase its daily production unilaterally, albeit OPEC made the decision not to follow. From simple demand and supply point of view, it does not really constitute an emergency situation that could trigger the use of SPR. Lots of people are therefore interested in digging out the real political incentives of such moves, most of them circulating on the role of Obama administration; others are questioning the capability or SPR release and its effectiveness on the global oil price. While most of debate seems to target conflicts in between the oil producing and consuming economies, I tend to intepret this move in a broader picture of global energy politics.

Looking at current international energy landscape, it is no longer a dichotomy between oil producing OPEC and oil consuming IEA. In terms of energy market, on one hand nowadays we have Asian countries like China and India who are engulfing huge amount of fossil fuel to satisfy its exponentially-growing economic appetite, who remain non-OCED members and thus not within the IEA club.  On the other hand non-OPEC countries are taking up more share in the global oil production, let alone Russia being the biggest single oil producing country by far, suppressing all other OPEC nations. This will nevertheless dilute the impacts of IEA-OPEC conflict, however, it also means that the IEA-OPEC energy war will extend to other parts of the world in a significant magnitude, due to the increasing involvement of other new players on the table. In this sense, neither IEA nor OPEC should have the legitimacy or the power to claim hegemony in the global oil politics. At least it determines that the actions like SPR release or OPEC refusal to increase the production would have diminishing impacts on the overall oil price on the market. At the same time, we are experiencing a huge boom in renewable energy technologies everywhere, including most IEA member states and OPEC countries to a lesser degree (bearing in mind that the headquarters of International Renewable Energy Agency is locating in Abu Dhabi, UAE, one of OPEC state). However, the development of renewable energy is highly dependent on the fossil fuel market, as investors eventually follow the basic economic principle in deciding where to bet their money on. Clearly an attempt to curtail oil price would bring less incentives for renewable energy development. This impact will only become more significant especially in Europe, after Germany swore to close down all its nuclear stations and Italians voted off future nuclear plans.

I have always considered the funky performance of OPEC, run by sandy princes, crazy dictators, and shitfaced theocrats, a primary driving force that is most likely to boost alternative energy R&D in the future. Their well-known public image and controversial cartel actions are mostly likely to deter others from bidding all the money on the oil. We see in Europe there is a surge of renewable energy (esp. wind and solar power) in the past decade, and that trend could be found in China as well. Meanwhile, even nuclear is once again given enough media attention thanks to both climate change propaganda and energy security concerns. For sure OPEC has played a major role in accelerating this trend and as I mentioned before,  I am very much happy to see a major shift of our energy consumption patterns. Now that IEA releases its SPR trying to counter-attack OPEC’s actions, or shall I say IEA is attempting to preserve the importance of fossil fuel in the global energy politics. Personally this is not what I expect to see, I would be rather happy that global oil price be created artificially high by oil producing cartel and oil hoarding speculators so that we could seriously develop technologies such as fusion, hydrogen or even renewables. But IEA’s intervention just couldn’t let it go. But luckily, the energy market right now is much bigger and more complex from the time when SPR was created (1970s due to the oil embargo from Arab states). SPR release could not have a profound impact on the oil price nowadays. But I doubt if the oil consuming group is going to give up trying. After serving like a “think tank” for nearly 30 years, I am sure IEA would love to use this opportunity to reassert its image as a powerful and legitimate leader in the global energy governance, and SPR would consequentially be the Tomahawk that are going to be used more frequently, rather than the ICBM that you just create to scare others. While renewable energy is still weak in practice and nuclear bashed by environmentalist’s populist campaign, maybe clueless dudes like Obama feel it’s time to wipe off the dusts of IEA weapon in the energy war, but it’s very short-sighted and limited as long as most oil is still dug out in their desserts and gulf. I seriously hope one day I wake up and read the news that we could produce hydrogen or fusion in a massive scale, so that all these pointless war about energy would finally be put off (probably something new emerged, but at least you don’t need to feed those lazy ass in the desserts any more).